There’s a lot of noise out there about what’s going on in the real estate market right now. If you’re buying or selling a home in Arizona in 2025, you’re probably seeing mixed signals—more listings, fewer agents, strong price headlines, yet slower buyer activity. I’ve been in this business long enough to tell you: when data sends mixed messages, that’s when experience matters most.
Let me break down what’s really happening right now, and tell you what it means if you’re planning to make a move this year.
As of late March, the supply index hit 100 for the first time since May 2011. That’s a big deal. It means we no longer have a housing shortage. But here's the kicker—demand hasn’t kept up. In fact, it's about 19% below normal levels.
That gap between supply and demand? It's pushing the market firmly toward buyers.
We’ve seen an 18% increase in new listings this year compared to this time in 2024, and a 36% increase over 2023. Sellers are showing up—but buyers, not so much. That’s led to over 24% more homes on the market than we currently need. It’s a classic mismatch that can lead to price softening, especially as we head deeper into the year.
Right now, closed home prices are holding up—but just barely. The top end of the market is carrying the load, while active listings and pending contracts show clear signs of weakness.From my experience if this continues, we could see a domino effect: first list prices drop, then under-contract prices, and finally, closed sale prices follow suit.
This pattern mirrors what we saw back in around 2005. Back then, inventory started rising rapidly in April 2005, but it took over a year before prices dropped significantly. We’re not in the same environment today, but it’s a reminder that markets take time to shift. If supply continues to outpace demand, pricing will need to adjust.
Most of us already guessed this in 2023, with rising demand in Phoenix and tech booms but new game plans coming everyday with a presidential shift, might won’t let the picture change for at least this year.
Now this might feel a bit off-topic, but here’s something people don’t talk about enough: buyer psychology. Right now, buyers have more options and stronger negotiating power—but many are hesitating. Why? Because they sense prices may fall, and no one wants to feel like they overpaid.
That hesitation can create a negative feedback loop- and by the time it will get over, you might have already lost the market value of your home. Fewer offers mean longer days on market.
That leads to price reductions, which leads to even more caution. It’s a pattern we haven’t seen clearly in over a decade—and if you’re selling, you need to understand it.
The takeaway? If you’re a seller in 2025, pricing right from day one isn’t optional—it’s essential. Overpricing in this market is the fastest way to get ignored. I hope if you are buyer you are taking a strong consideration of your area’s market growth and demands.
For this, let’s take a closer look at the Cromford® Market Index (CMI), which is one of the best indicators of who has the upper hand—buyers or sellers. A CMI of 100 means balance. Above 100 favors sellers, below 100 favors buyers.
Here’s what we’re seeing in some of the key Phoenix-area cities:
| Market Type | City | CMI | Trend vs. Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seller’s Market | Chandler | 140.5 | ⬇ -4% |
| Scottsdale | 122.0 | ⬇ -4% | |
| Paradise Valley | 120.0 | ⬇ -3% | |
| Gilbert | 117.6 | ⬇ -5% | |
| Fountain Hills | 116.7 | ⬇ -3% | |
| Tempe | 115.6 | ⬇ -11% | |
| Phoenix | 114.8 | ⬇ -1% | |
| Avondale | 111.7 | ⬆ 11% | |
| Glendale | 111.1 | ⬆ 6% | |
| Balanced Market | Cave Creek | 106.6 | ⬇ -3% |
| Mesa | 105.7 | ⬇ -1% | |
| Peoria | 90.6 | ⬇ -5% | |
| Buyer’s Market | Goodyear | 75.1 | ⬇ -6% |
| Surprise | 63.2 | ⬇ -1% | |
| Queen Creek | 62.3 | ⬇ -10% | |
| Buckeye | 50.1 | ⬆ 0% | |
| Maricopa | 49.6 | ⬆ 8% |
Overall, 13 out of the 17 largest cities have shifted further in favor of buyers this month alone. The average change in CMI was -2.7%—a faster decline than we saw the previous week.
Even though we’re in the middle of the traditional spring buying season, momentum is headed downhill. That’s not typical. Usually, this is when the market heats up, but this year, things feel muted.
The latest Case-Shiller® report shows Phoenix home prices are up 2.7% year-over-year. That’s decent, but it trails the national average of 4.1%. We’re sitting in the lower half of the 20-city index, despite a small month-over-month bump.
Cities like New York, Chicago, and Boston are outperforming us, with annual price growth between 6% and 8%. Meanwhile, Tampa has seen prices fall by 1.5% over the last year—the only city in negative territory.
Phoenix isn’t falling, but we’re clearly not leading either. And that tells me we should brace for slower growth—or even some contraction—if demand doesn’t pick up soon.
One thing I’ve been watching closely this year is the steady rise in foreclosures. In Maricopa County, the number of pending foreclosure filings has slowly ticked up—from around 1,200 at the end of last year to roughly 1,400 as of early April. That’s not cause for panic, but it’s a shift worth paying attention to.
To put it in perspective, before the pandemic, it wasn’t unusual to see foreclosure counts sitting between 1,500 and 1,800. And during the 2009 crisis? We saw more than 50,000. So, yes, the numbers are climbing—but we’re still far from anything resembling a wave. It’s more of a slow return to historical norms, not a crash.
That said, if you’re a homeowner who's behind on payments—or worried you might be soon—this is the time to take action. Foreclosure doesn’t happen overnight. There are steps and timelines built in, and in many cases, options to avoid it altogether.
Here’s what I always tell clients in this situation: don’t wait. If you’re struggling, start the conversation early. The more time we have, the more solutions we can explore.
There are free, credible resources that can help:
Even if you’ve already received a Notice of Trustee Sale, there may still be options to stop the process—like loan modification, short sale, or a structured plan to catch up on payments.
The important thing is to stay informed and take steps early. The sooner you face the problem, the more likely it is we can fix it before it becomes a crisis.
So, what should you do now?
If you’re a buyer, this is the most favorable market we’ve seen in years. You’ve got more options, more negotiating power, and less competition. Just know that timing your purchase perfectly is impossible. Focus on buying the right home at the right monthly payment—not on guessing the bottom.
If you’re a seller, this isn’t the time to test the market with a high list price. Homes that are priced right are still selling—but the margin for error is shrinking. If your home sits too long, it risks going stale, and buyers will smell blood in the water.
And if you’re an investor, this is a time for patience and sharp math. The opportunities are starting to emerge, especially in areas shifting deeper into buyer's market territory. But don’t bank on price appreciation alone—look for cash flow and long-term fundamentals.
Could all of this shift quickly? Yes—if mortgage rates fall. But that’s a big "if." Inflation is still running hotter than the Fed would like, and that makes rate cuts less likely in the short term. We might see a drop later this year, but I wouldn’t plan your strategy around it.
If you’re waiting for 4% mortgage rates to make a comeback, you might be waiting a long time.
2025 is shaping up to be a transitional year. We’re moving away from the pandemic-fueled chaos and into something that feels more like a real market—but that doesn’t mean it’s predictable.
I always tell my clients: real estate is local, personal, and timing matters—but not as much as preparation. If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing, don’t go it alone. Let’s talk. I’ll help you make sense of what the data means for you—and help you make a move that actually makes sense.
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Andy
Founder | Real Estate Expert
Helping Arizona homeowners make smart moves, one market shift at a time. Book Free Consultation.